Welfare reform bill risks forcing nearly half a million disabled people to turn to food banks

Today the Universal Credit and Personal Independence Payment Bill 2025 was introduced in the House of Commons, with the second reading debate and vote expected in the coming weeks.

Responding to the publication of the bill, Helen Barnard, Director of policy at Trussell said: “The UK government’s new Universal Credit and PIP bill, put before Parliament today, does almost nothing to ease the concerns of hundreds of the thousands of disabled people who fear that their social security support will be ripped from them. In fact, this bill will push nearly half a million more people into severe hardship and towards the doors of food banks. 

“It is easy to see why so many MPs have voiced concerns about the damage this bill will do. What has been published today offers little for MPs deeply concerned about the impact of these cuts on their constituents.

“The last minute details on protections offer something for a small proportion of people, but even they will still see a real-terms cut. The reality of this bill is still record cuts in support for disabled people, and the biggest cuts to social security since 2015.

“It is shocking that MPs are being asked to vote through cuts without a full assessment of their impact, and especially worrying as we know that already three in four people referred to the Trussell community are disabled or live with someone who is. 

“We know hunger and hardship already pushes up public service costs alone by £13.7 billion. MPs are being asked to vote for a Bill that will drive up hunger and hardship and undermine the UK government's promises on economic growth and ending the need for emergency food."

The bill's introduction comes as hundreds of representatives from community food organisations and people experiencing severe hardship gather for a mass lobby calling for Universal Credit to be made fit for purpose in Westminster, and just weeks after analysis for Trussell by WPI Economics found that these cuts would force 440,000 people in disabled households into severe hardship, putting them at risk of needing a food bank.

Trussell warns the UK government’s proposed £7 billion cuts to support for disabled people are likely to undermine its goal of increasing employment and will drive higher costs for public services. Trussell and WPI Economics have recently also shown that even before these cuts, the ongoing failure to tackle severe hardship leads to the UK government spending an additional £13.7 billion a year on public services alone, like the NHS, schools and children’s social care. The analysis also showed that severe hardship also has a knock-on impact on employment, driving up costs for the UK economy and public purse.

Background to the bill

The provisions of the bill include:

• Freezing the Universal Credit health element for existing recipients from April 2026. This will amount to a real terms cut of £500 a year for 2.1 million disabled people.
• Cutting the Universal Credit health element by half for disabled people claiming Universal Credit from April 2026. This will amount to a real terms cut of £3,000 a year for more than 750,000 disabled people.
• Restricting access to Personal Independence Payment (PIP) from November 2026. This will be a cut of an average of £4,500 a year for between 800,000 and 1.3 million disabled people. It will also result in at least 150,000 carers losing entitlement to carer’s benefits.
• A small boost to the basic rate (‘standard allowance’) of Universal Credit, reaching the full increase of around £250 a year after inflation by 2029/30 for a single adult over 25.

The bill also includes confirmation of the final detail of two additional financial protections first announced in the 'Pathways to Work’ Green Paper in March 2025:

First, the additional payment for people nearing the end of life and some people with severe or lifelong conditions who claim the Universal Credit health element after April 2026. The bill now confirms that it will only bring this group up to the frozen rate of the health element. In other words, around 10% of people making new claims for the UC health element will be protected from the £3,000 per year cut for new recipients, but all disabled people receiving Universal Credit will still be subject to at least a real-terms cut of £500 a year due to the freeze.

Second, the run-on period for people who will lose their PIP payments as a result of these reforms. This is now confirmed at 13 weeks. However, this will not stop the ultimate impact of the cuts, but rather simply delay their effect.

The provisions of the bill have not been subject to a consultation process, and MPs will be asked to vote on this bill before seeing:

• The Office for Budget Responsibility's assessment of its employment impacts.
• The conclusions of the recently announced review into the PIP assessment.
• The completion of the Government’s independent ‘Keep Britain Working’ review of the role of employers and government in tackling health-related inactivity.
  
  Notes

1. 440,000 people in disabled households will be pushed into severe hardship by 2029/30 as a result of the cuts to the UC health element and PIP. Around 95,000 people in non-disabled households will be lifted out of severe hardship by the small boost to the basic rate (‘standard allowance’) in Universal Credit.
   People face severe hardship if they are more than 25% below the Social Metrics Commission's poverty line. This captures both people who are likely to need to turn to a food bank now and people who are at high risk of needing food bank support in the future.
2. This modelling was conducted by WPI Economics using the IPPR tax-benefit model. The model is owned by the Institute for Public Policy Research and is maintained by researchers at Manchester Metropolitan University.
3. Just 5% of Work Capability Assessments for Employment and Support Allowance (the legacy benefit which Universal Credit and its health element replaced, the best indicative data available) result in people being assessed as falling in the terminally ill or ‘severe conditions criteria’ groups.  The DWP’s impact assessment of the bill anticipates that the number of people in this group will increase due to these reforms, with 82,000 people protected, or around 10% of new claims. People in this group will still experience a real-terms cut of £500 per year compared to the situation prior to these reforms.